Poland is growing

My 'study' trip to my home town - Gliwice brings everyday something new. The most important message is that the crisis has not struck as hard as in other countries. The GDP in the second quarter of 2009 should still remain positive (around 0.8).

This is probably thanks to still strong consumption (might still go down) and huge public investments sponsored mainly from the EU funds. If somebody wants to have a look at the plans of north-south highway linking Czech Republic with Gdansk you can go to http://www.a1-pyrzowice-sosnica.pl/ (beautiful visualisation of the Silesian part of it). There are many new roads being built. I have witnessed it during the weekend in the Czech mountains (Pradzied). And no queue on the borders.... you travel like this was a ... Central Europe :)

There is also some movement in the national politics. Pawel Piskorski, once a founder and leader of the ruling Platforma Obywatelska and a former MEP is trying to challenge the existing establishment by building a new centre-left political on the ashes of the historical Stronnictwo Demokratyczne. His chances of success are still limited but still he pushes Platforma to react on the ideological issues. They managed to engage another former leader of Platforma, Andrzej Olechowski (who secured 17% of votes in the 2000 presidential elections) who will most probably stand again next year. Who knows, how sucessful he might be? I would bet he will make it to the socond round with Donald Tusk. This would make a very interesting discussion.

Last but not least, the regional and municipal elections are scheduled for spring 2010 (before the presidential ones in automn). This makes it an interesting time for those that fancy campaings and political debates. Magda, shall you stand for a post in the municipal council of the city of LODZ? You have fervent supporters not only in Brussels :).

So now it is time for Krakow, my life trampoline. During the almost 10 years that I had spent there I have developed a kind of love-hate relation. Now it is time to visit old friends and places again. It is always tough to visit places that accompanied you during good/bad times. I feel uneasy about this trip... Probably Krakow has already forgotten about me. I have cheated it with Brussels, so no lover forgets this :) Still I will go to say him hello....

I just can't help it.... on holidays but thinking of Europe :)

I think that I should start seeing my interest in Europe as an obsession. I went on holidays to my home country and am reading articles in Euractiv and Euobserver. I am thinking more and more that it is time for me to engage in the large scale debate on Europe.

I have been thinking a lot about the issue of enlargement and 2 big chunks on the way to be swallowed by the EU: Turkey and Ukraine. The more I look at these 2 countries, the more I have an impression that EU is just not ready to 'eat' them. Instead we should start thinking about putting them as strategic partners:
1) Ukraine should be our mean of transforming Russia into what it can be (a democratic, non imperialist country respecting its citizens)
2) Turkey should be our vehicle for change in the Muslim word. Turkey is actually a Muslim country with a European soul.

I go to Lviv, one of the historic towns of Ukraine next week. I have read a lot about its Polish/Ukrainian/Jewish/German/Armenian history. Am looking forward to discover how things look on place. Will write about it upon my return. But the most startling was that Ukrainian nationalism was a reaction to Polish nationalism in the late XIXth century. Nationalism seen as a European religion is really a new perspective.

I become a fun of Przeglad Polityczny. This is a periodic published by the group of Liberals from Gdansk (the friends of the current of Polish Prime Minister). They really write good stuff about the contemporary political discussions. I feel that my crazy idea to draft a common narrative for Europe is getting new insights from them. Now we have a new term for the EU polity - civitas. I will write more on this when it becomes more clear in my mind. Just a teaser: instead of talking about federation, state or union - which make us think the states of the XXth century we need to find a new expression to capture it. And CIVITAS seems for me to capture it :).

I need to read the ruling of the German Constitutional Court on the Lisbon Treaty. I think that this is a major piece showing the limited legitimisation of the European Parliament. EP will have to really take it into account. And this will give rise to the meaning of Convention as a Treaty reform stage. No matter if Lisbon fails or not... we will see a new Convention very soon. I hope this time we shall make it right.

And last piece: UK. This country is going through breathtaking political change which will influence the whole EU. I think that the year before Conservatives win the next elections will be crucial for establishing their position on major world issues. If they decide to go by EU, this will be a painful experience of lost influence. UK now, after the financial crisis is much closer to make strategic decisions about its internal rules. I expect a lot of changes in the coming years. And ultimately UK should make a clear choice if it remains an island by the EU or is part of this political project.

Have good holidays. Break from work does not mean break from thinking. :)

European Politics versus holidays

I have not written for a while but am following closely the recent events on the European stage. I am happy about the choice of Jerzy Buzek. Suddenly all the foreigners get interested in Poland... It is funny how power attracts and raises interests.

There is a lot of speculation about Barroso. I must say I like this speculation. I have nothing personal with this guy but somehow he has not convinced me so far. I do not want to join all those who say he did not do enough during the banking crisis. He was coping with an insitution which has doubled its membership within 3 years. But I think a fresh start would help.

It is a bit like with Buzek. He was the Prime Minister of Poland for 4 years. He had good will and try to accomodate different currents inside Solidarnosc. But he would have better done if he had resigned after the initial 2-3 years. Standing by the post is not beneficial for the system when people no longer bet on you. The fall of AWS (electoral block Solidarnosc) in the 2001 was a sad ending of his term as Prime minister.

One saying says: always give a second chance, never a third one. I think it does not apply to Presidents. They should have one chance and if they do not use it well, it means they do not have the capacity to improve....

I should write more but am getting ready for well deserved holidays. When I come back in August, I hope Brussels will sleep well and dream about a new Comission President. Why not Chris Patten? Why not Wastrom? Why not Fischer...

L'Europe puissance - the key question

Many years ago I read an article comparing the prevailing visions of Europe in France, Germany and UK (divided among their respective political parties). The main conclusion was that French tend to think about Intergovernmental Confederation (which guarantees respect of their nation-etat and is a vehicle of their interests), Germans about a Federal State (with clear delineation of power between different government levels) and the Britts about a Free Trade Union (reducing internal barriers for trade and competition, with limited central powers).

But I am afraid that many of these divisions disappear when people start to talk about spreading European values and L'Europe puissance (Europe as a political power). Recently I came across another article where the author complains that EU has concentrated too much on 'regulation', abandoning the political project as such. I cite his words:
Ce n’est pas la régulation qui est un objectif en soi, c’est le projet politique qui est l’objectif. (It is not the regulation which is an objective as such, the political project is the objective).

This small innocent phrase which follows on the speeches of many so called 'founding fathers',made me think about value of thinking small against thinking big. I am afraid that whenever we start to talk about 'projet politique' there is a tendency to think in terms of the traditional nation state which has been the major political project of XIXth - XXth century (unification of Italy and Germany, the emergence of nation states in Central Europe following the I world war etc.). And with own its merits (declaratory equality of citizens, social protection, concept of demos), a nation state has been probably one of the biggest oppressor and source of violence in the international realm (wars 1914-1945), postcolonial conflicts in Africa. So if we think about EU in these terms, there is a risk of creating a new imperial structure which will repeat the nation-state experience in the larger intercontinental context. But it will not change the rules of the game, which have proved to be so dangerous for the humankind.

I think that we should accept the European project as precisely rather a regulation of relations between states than creation of a new political entity which will finally make the 'European' voice heard. It does not need to go any further. Europe should be a big think-tank, regulator and place for discussion/peaceful confrontation among different actors. It does not need to go much further but make all the internal actors play according to the rules of the game.

And precisely the French reflex of talking about 'l'Europe puissance' is dangerous in this context. We need much more moderation in our approach to foreign policy. EU should behave rather like inward looking China who tries to prevent external threats but does not have this intervention reflex that we so painfully experienced in Iraq and Afghanistan. Europe will not be a better, more efficient France. We cannot expect that by giving money, sending troops or negotiating trade deals we can fundamentally change the reality of countries in Africa, Asia or Latin America. We can support positive tendencies, help in sharing good practices but our influence will always remain limited.

I think that if we continue to talk about Europe as a sort of 'better, bigger nation state' we shall only bring back the imperialist thinking which partly lead to the second world war. There is tention between the 'Europe as a project to guarantee peace' and the 'Europe puissance' megalomania. I hope that this is what meant Schuman, Monnet, Spinnelli, Spaak and Adenauer. Moderation should become the major spice of European foreign policy.

Economic crisis and the meaning of politics

I have read an interesting interview with George Soros. For those who do not know he is a Hungarian financial invester who earned a lot of money on currency speculation (British pound in the 1990) and parallely started giving a lot of money to the developement of democracy in Central Europe (Open Institute). He warns that we still do not know the real magnitude of the economic crisis and that he believes it will be much deeper than we imagine.
For some years now the Chinese model of state capitalism will prevail. The role of China, India and Brasil will grow while that of US will fade. Nothing will be the same cause the fundamental belief of recent 20 years - that markets tend to automatically seek equilibrium has proved false. And that living on credit has finished when nobody wants to risk another credit.

What is the impact of the above on the politics in general? I think that politics will have to move back to the area which it has left to the specialists - bankers, insurers etc. The new agenda will paradoxically be: not only 'better regulation' but we cannot trust markets - financial markets especially.

But unfortunately Barroso, who put better regulation as a paramount preoccupation of his first term as Commission President, he failed to deliver in the view of the public (at least from our current perspective). I do not want to say that he is guilty for the financial crisis. The whole economists community is guilty for the epistemic mistake we took as a new truth. The problem with Barroso is that in normal times his conciliatory approach, niceness would win him another term. I am afraid (am I?) that this will not prove to be a winning policy this time. Politics needs scapegoats and somebody who has been perceived as supporting liberalisation and markets is a perfect bird to shoot at.

The paradox is that the subjective 'losers' of the last European elections - the Socialists are now rediscovering the meaning of confrontational politics. Probably to a large extent due to the approaching September elections in Germany, Mr Schultz is flexing his muscles in the name of Socialists. And as says Euobserver (http://euobserver.com/9/28374) the Socialists and Greens want to block a quick confirmation of Barroso for his new term. If this political position wins, there is a great risk that the grand coalition in the EP (PSE and EPP) shall be jeopardised once and for all. If Barroso is elected with the votes of EPP, Liberals and the New Conservative Block (together 401 votes - simple majority needed out of 732 MEPs) this will alter the consesus which has prevailed over the last 30 years (with the small exception of EP presidency by Pat Cox).

But coming back to the larger world context, this will not be business as usual anymore. Probably next 10 years will show an unprecedented level of international strain and conflicts. Soros predicts that international institutions will roll back - they will lack the backing of state leaders. I think there is great time now for a new analysis of the political consequences of the Great Depression. We talk about Hitler as the main cause of the WWII but we often forget in what situation he came to power. A situation when the German (Weimar) parliamentary democracy faced 25% of unemployment rate (6M jobless). But we often lose from perspective that the 30ties were the years of growing authoritarism and that international strains were partly a result of its use for domestic purposes (have to think more about this aspect...).

Coming back to the main thesis, politics will no longer be as we used to perceive it to be. It will step back into the areas of economics/monetary relations left to the markets.
Europe needs to prepare for increased tentions both inside and outside. This paradoxically can be positive for the legitimacy of EU as a political project. It will increase the political competition in the EP (more conflicts, more media coverage) and in the international arena there will be a need for a concerted action, otherwise no single EU state will be able to influence the situation. I hope only that the world will not repeat the short-term trade policy of 'beggar thy neighbour' of the 30ties. So far OECD has hailed the world leaders for sticking to the WTO rules and not increasing protection. But with the situation getting worse/stagnating, the quick wins such a policy might offer is a serious temptention. And as Oscar Wild once said: 'I can resist anything but temptation'.

To sum up, the next years will be far from boring. And both the next Commission and hopefully External Action Service shall have a lot of work to do. This is a test they cannot fail!

Solana and the future of external service

Read today a very interesting aricle about Solana's views on the future of the external action service foreseen in the Lisbon treaty (http://euobserver.com/9/28355). It is funny how sometimes a simple truth can escape our political intuition. Solana is right! There should not be a revolution in merging national embassies with the Commission Delegations. It should be really a gradual process. We say in Poland: Hurry up slowly :).

I wonder what would say of my colleagues from DG RELEX who are sitting at their desks waiting to become part of the new elite. External Action Service is probably already provoking sleepless nights to many 'decideurs'. How to square the circle of exclusive Commission competences (trade), the mixed ones (developement) and all those which are still perceived as the remit of the nation state? How to choose the diplomats who shall serve there? Should DG Developement be part of it. What about EuropeAid and ECHO? What should be the proportions between officials from Commission, Council Secretariat and Member States? And then comes Solana and says: this should be done progressively. What a simple solution. So we shall slowly detache national diplomats to join EU Delegations, we shall foresee a selection board to have balance between Member States.

But a bigger puzzle is facing European leaders . If the ratification of Lisbon treaty is delayed (even after the foreseen yes of the Irish) let's say till January, there will be a long transitory period with unclear attribution of portfolios and choice of Commissioners. Poland for example would like to have one of the economic portfolios (industry, budget, internal market). If however we receive sth still sexy but not strictly economic, they the choice of the Commissioner might be different. Mr Lewandowski does not seem keen on non-economic issues. I imagine the same for other countries. Top level politicians do not accept everything or nothing proposals. And no political system deals well with leadership vacuum. I expect that 4 Commissioners that have been elected to EP will be soon out their current jobs. So anyway a reshuffling is on its way.

On the site of the European Policy Centre (www.epc.eu) there is an interesting publication with different views on the shape of the Commission. Antonio Missiroli developes a vision of enhanced role of vice president and totally novatory split of existing portfolios. One of his suggestion is to increase the standing of the Bureau of European Policy Advisors (BEPA). I find his proposals really interesting and revealing. I would like one day work in such a forward looking think-tank. But career path in European instutions is a subject of its own merits, so maybe... another day.
Wait for comments. It functions now :)

Depeche Mode and Europe - I just can't get enough

I was yesterday at the concert of Depeche Mode in Werchter. I want to comment not only on their music but on the visual aspect - the pictures, films showed in the background.

I must say this was really inspiring. One that struck me most was the photos of different armies, vehicles, planes symbolising the war and the attitude of people towards strength and power. I think we keep on forgetting about the European war 1914-1945 (I know this is a controversial way to put it, but I will explain it one day). I think we forget very easily the attractiveness of pure power, of authoritative speakers who through their charisma manage the minds and hearts. I think we do not want to admit that a beautiful fighter plane which can go fast and destroy precisely what was marked, gives shivers to many guys, me included. I am 33 and heard a lot about war, conflicts and fighting. But only yesterday I could understand the war excitement which accompanied soldiers walking onto the front in 1914. I think we should be able to show this enthusiasm and show the picture of destroyed towns and burnt corps. Without this we shall never get it that our passions can drive us to extinction.

The other song was about sexuality. This showed two girls approaching each other. Then it got more blurred - as I heard, this was censored. But still I realised how far we have gone from the medieval times when Catholic church was setting the rules of what is allowed and what prohibited. I am reading a book European history (Est-ce que l'Europe a un histoire). And though it is true that Christianity has marked our past and is still present for many of us, the liberation of sexuality has been a huge step that i.e. the Convent failed to admit. There was also recently in European Voice an article about the role Catholic church plays in Ireland. When you put sexuality and religion next to each other you see how much tension appears. I do not want to say that Depeche Mode has the right answer to all questions. For me what they showed was rather a 'signum temporis' - sexuality is no longer a taboo, and I think rightly so.

Third picture was two faces next to each other. One seemed to be an old white guy with silver her. The other looked like a Black kid, teenager. During the song, slowly some parts of each picture got blurred and we could accompany a slow transformation of the grey guy into the Black kid and Black kid into the greyish guy. I did not know this song, but it made me think about the race, immigration and divide between the autochtone (eng. native) and allochtones (eng. others, strangers). The topic of who we are and who we become. I know I do not discover anything new, but if a kid can change into an old guy from another race, it makes you think how many prejudices there are in our hearts.

Last picture I want to describe was the famous crow sitting in the middle of the desert, with his blinking eye shown at the top of the screen. For me this was a picture of calm solitude. The bird was wise, alone. I do not know if it was a symbole of death, eternity what else can you imagine... Anybody want to add a better description. But it was amazing - the bird was calm, eternal.

Maybe I should read more about Depeche Mode and their symbolism before I share it with you. But music is eternal. And DM has something, I do not know how to say... transcendental. I think their music describes a lot of feelings of our times: depression, fear, passion, reflection, wanting to be part of a rhytm, crying. I think a guy needs to have real guts to sing about this in the way they do. It is a paradox when real masculinity is the courage to say that we have so much feminity. Or maybe this split is artificial; we are the much more similar than the tradition makes us think. Guys are crying and girls are sexual. Simple... maybe not so for all.

Anyway, DM gave me more inspirations than any preamble to the 'European' treaties. Maybe in fact they are hiding more than they reveal. Maybe one day we should talk about the transitions that we have gone through. This should teach us more distance into culture, social behaviour, shaming and liberation. There is a lot going on which the politicians have not captured so far.