Banking Union - unintended consequences and path dependency

I kept silent for 6 months or so.... Was I too busy? Or my personal computer went down which forced me to use the older, crappy one. Anyway, my previsions for steps to federation during last December proved overly optimistic and a bit too early. But the unfolding of events looks like there is a new great bargain approaching.
I can bet by December 2012 we shall start a real next step in the european integration. Will it be called Banking Union (sounds like Ban-Ki-Moon...... :), or Fiscal integrated management..... or The Union (do not mistake with The Facebook :))..... the name can be sorted later. But the financial and economic crisis is posing an existential threat to the Union as we know it and it will require a substantial readjustement of the whole structure. When I wrote about the last Convention in 2005 I did not think we shall have another one that quickly. But from what Andrew Duff says and I believe THIS TIME he might be right..... we might face a new one in the beginning of 2015. What is the logic?
1. European Council will come up at the end with Treaty proposals that will substantially alter the distribution of power and competences in the European Union. Depending on the British position we shall have a new Maastrich type treaty (for all 28 Member states).
2. The economic governance reforms will be created in a piecemeal approach. They will not be perfect, rather short-term fixes like EFSF, ESM..... Ok, 6-pack was not short term... but what I try to say is that we shall have many pieces of a structure but the new architecture shall be missing.
3. The European Parliament elections will be tough for the traditional ruling blocks of Socialist and European Peoples Party. The new power structure and new entrants will show the disenchantement of the population with the behind the scenes tractations at European summits.
4. A legitimation effort shall be needed, and maybe this will even be the claim of main parties that a Convention looks  at the new picture and tries to bring clarity to the new status quo.

So let's see and wait if this time my prognosis will be proved right. I expect a bumpy second part of 2012 but the framework presented by Van Rompuy for the June summit seems like a vision document (but without the dates).....

Summing up, It is a very good time to be passionately interested in European politics. Watch the new union unfold. As to discussions if this should be a federation, confederation, union or community..... I vote for 'EUROPA'. We do not need to abide by what is there in the political science. We create an entity that will defy the existing categorisations. New ones will need to depict the new reality. Enjoy the show!

The EU on a way to federation

So it looks like France and Germany agreed for a new treaty change. Yet this time the logic of change is different. It is enough if some 17 plus countries ratify the new treaty for it to come into force. This looks like a situation experienced by the States of America when they were ratifying the US Constitution in 1787...
So this is a historical moment: change from a confederal rule of unanimity to a federal rule of a majority. Ok, a special majority where France and Germany have to be in, or do they?
So the next steps are as follows:
The European Council will agree this week to start the treaty amendment process. Then the European Parliament will use its right to convene a Convention, why should not it insist of this right?
So in March we start a Convention, which we probably be limited in time - let's say till end of July. The new IGC will be so locked by the Convention that it will barely touch on the substance and in December 2012 we shall start the ratification process. However this time ratifications will be clearly scheduled in a sensible way. Starting from the most pro-European to the least. So if the majority to enact the treaty is set at let's say 4/5 of the countries and 2/3 of the population we shall see an interesting count down.
Maybe it is time to undust my thesis on the dynamics of the Convention? Who knows....
Now let's see who will chair the next Convention? Is it Mr Van Rompuy or the Convention will be allowed to choose itself? Rather not.

So much going on in the world... it made me silent...

Dear readers,
I have been silent for a while, almost 9 months. This is a suicide for a blogger. In the world of twitter, on-line news, Arab spring and euro zone fighting for credibility this is an inexcusable absence. But what means 9 months in our lives?
I was struggling to stay on top of the news. What is really important? What should we concentrate our attention on?
I participate in the Brussels Forum in April where we had a meeting with Gordon Brown. He said that we are in the middle of a big change which touches on the way we produce and think about the world.
I read today that if the imbalance cannot continue forever it will not. So actually the big question of today is: when will US realize it cannot continue as it does and does the Chinese government really know what it is doing?
I witness the European institutions on the daily basis and still I think it is mostly concerned with the inward looking. What will be the next financial perspective 2013-2020 and these type of questions.
I have a big trust in Mr Van Rompuy and European Parliament on the whole but can these two 'institutions' carry the burden of ailing monetary union alone? I do not have any good answers.... So far the financial markets with their 'idees fixes' have won on Greece, Ireland and Portugal. So now the whole European game should be about stopping the disease and defending Spain credit standing.
One year has gone since Greece went 'boost'. What have we learnt since the? Are we addressing the causes or just put palliative pills to deter the shock therapy?
I think everything can be faced with a good leadership and a vision. I see it being constructed around Mr Van Rompuy. But I think that the turf wars of Brussels can still take a lot of energy and divert his attention. What are his powers? Chairing meetings and making speeches....
The real power is in the Commission and member state chancelleries.
Sarkozy is fighting for reelection and his mind is probably dominated by preparation for G8 and G20. I have been recently to Deauville - really nice place which looks probably the same as 100 years ago. But if Deauville is the place to make world decisions.... I doubt. It looks more like the old XX century decisions taken in Yalta or Teheran... has the world changed a bit?

With time and Fukushimas I am growing more assured by the Ecologic movement. Sure, as our neighbour Claude said recently there are also 'Khmer vert' - green Khmers in the world. But at least about the nuclear power the Green seem to put the right diagnosis- we cannot control it, the risk is too high.
So coming back to the French elections next year, I hope the Greens can make it to the second round :) Can Eva Joly make it?

And on my professional front the Deauville summit will discuss also the 'development accountability'. For me this is a very interesting concept. I think it is not about how much money have we committed but what have we achieved through this....

So this is in the nutshell a 'tour of the monde' as I see it. I hope I will be back to blogging. It is like a security valve: when you have too much intellectual input you need a place to put it out....
In the meantime I plan some travelling: Berlin, Kinshasa, Madrid. Is not Brussels central? From Gliwice to Brussels and around the world. :)

on burka ban

Very good article from Bruno Waterfield (here). I can hardly imagine people going to jail because wearing wrong clothes.
Europe has a problem facing islam. And it even fails to admit that there is an issue. Banning is not the best basis for a dialogue...

The faces of Brussels

I have recently attended a Brussels Citizen University. An event organised by the team of Eric Corijn. We have discussed in English, French and ... Flemish the future of this city. The biggest discussion was of course about financing of the investments.
If you look for complex topics then you cannot get a better one that the history, population and government of this city. Yet still it is part of the world city network, part of the conurbation which links Belgium, Holland, NRW and Lille. It is also a world city due its population which stems from Turkey, Morocco and Kongo.

During my 4 years in Brussels I have realised how great and mediocre the Belgians can be at the same time. But when I saw the way the Belgian federalism works- a federalism of dotations- I lost all hope. I think I might start voting for NVA just to change the curcuit of money. It does not make any sense. You have regions and communities which receive the gross of the money from the central pot. It is like a bed dream of a bureaucratic guru.

Another point: there is no real Brussels narrative. If you talk to people from Eastern communes like WSL or Uccle; they have nothing in common with those from Mollenbeek or Schaerbeek. These are two worlds which are virtually separated by a KANAL.

And funny enough, the diplomats and Eurocrats like me, pay only the indirect taxes. So even the acclaimed Belgian socialism with taxation rate going beyond 50% does not capture the 'international bourgoisie'.

What are the points of contact between the 4 communities: Arab/Polish immigrants; pauperised Belgians; rich Belgians and expats? Probably the police where the robbed fortunates realise that Brussels has a different face too.
And strangely enough, the police is organised as 4 regions.... for a city of 1 million inhabitants and 400 000 commuters....
Despite the positive remarks of Paul Magnette, there is something rotten in this country. It is now my country too.
So what we need is not only a Flemish movement. We need a Brussels movement, discussion, vision. Because now it seems like everybody turns his back against the rest.
What are the initiatives you can follow on this subject? There is office for urban reporting - OUR or Kanal Platform.
And for those thinking about Belgium - you can look at RE-BEL.
I go to read one of their pieces :)

Stress and IT projects

I think my blog will change a bit its nature. During the first year it was mostly about my thinking about Europe and the world at large. But time has come to come back to the basics of a weblog: to assist the author in his daily activities.

I have an important meeting today. Around 15 people from different services will discuss how to improve the usability and interface of an IT application that is being created by my Unit. And believe no matter how boring IT may sound this is really of huge importance. The only parallel I can find is with designing a factory. If you design it well people know how to work and where to find the tools and machines. If you fail, you will have to put instructions everywhere and organise trainings for all newcomers. So the long term implications are huge...

How do you manage stress link to an important meeting? I still have not figured it out. I always pay with waking up in the morning at some crazy hour... thoughts come to your mind and crowd the dreams away.

And gathering people together is a big responsibility altogether. I will gather around 15 for the whole day. Let's count how much money of lost opportunities is a stake. If an avarage salary in the institutions for Administrators is 4000 Euros it means that this day costs 60 000 Euros. This should be a motivating factor to make the most of it.

So I have mixed feelings: stress and enthusiasm for a creative workshop will people I appreciate. The results will be seen probably next year only. Wish me good luck! :)

My 2010 Green manifesto

I have decided to join the Green movement. It took me 13 years to take this decision. Decision to join a political party. If you are born in a Communist party lead country party does not necessarily mean something good. Now I am ready.

Back in 1997 I have joined the young movement called 'Young democrats' (Mlodzi Democraci) which was a kind of youth assaciation affiliated to one of the key Polish political parties - Union of Freedom (Unia Wolnosci). I went for seminars, discussions, took part in electoral campaigns. But I was too cautious to make a step further and join the party itself. I was afraid of becoming manipulated and wanted to leave the options open. The Polish landscape of 1997 was still very fragile. I remember the discussions about the new Polish constitution and a clever, passionate speech of one of its opponents from the Kaczynski's camp: Ludwik Dorn. I remember the discussions about local government and the meeting with first Polish ambassador to the Czech Republic (...) forgot the name. I remember when I saw the name of Jerzy Buzek on the party list to the Polish Diet. I remember being invited for his expose in Sejm (Polish Diet) on the 10th November of 1997.
And now, 13 years later I decided to join the Belgian Green Francophone Party (ECOLO). These are my reasons:
1. I do believe that despite all their deficiencies political parties have a life in the post-national era of XXI century.
2. I learnt that being an official or diplomat you never enjoy the same freedom as the politicians do.
3. I believe that parties and internal elections are the best testing ground for young leaders and statesmen. I am now ready to take up this challenge. I am no longer afraid of being outmanouvered or ridiculed.
4. I believe the world we know is changing completely which creates a big challenge for the existing social systems in Europe and outside.
5. My generation 30-40 year old needs to get involved to represent a modern way of looking at the world.
6. The Christian Democrats have become part of the European establishment (EPP, Barroso, Juncker) and it will take time before a generation change occurs. Let me be silent on the links with the Catholic church now.
7. The Socialists never really made a right difference between equality and equality of rights. They should go back to the university and read about the incentive structure and engines of growth.
8. The Liberals - individualism is an important part of the European heritage but it will never solve the tragedy of commons. Liberals have been too close to the private business. And the 2008 financial crisis exposed to me the limits of liberal thinking.

Why Belgian ECOLO?
1. This is the only Belgian party which keeps close links (same parliamentary club) with the Flemish counterpart (GROEN).
2. I got fed up with the cars in Brussels and the limited space for bicycles.
3. The noise levels in Brussels are not acceptable. We need a green revolution, electric cars, responsible consumers and not highways bringing egoist navetteurs from the outskirts.
4. I believe in rights for sexual minorities and minorities altogether.
5. Ecolo brings new elements of discussions to the political system.
6. The European Greens are the openly pro-European party which remains critical of the current political establishment.
7. Greens being the new party are not yet overly dependant on the existing balance of interest. They are fresh in politics.
8. I believe within the next 20 years Greens can become a force in Europe of around 20% which will be necessary to govern the countries.
9. They have couple of charismatic leaders: Cohn-Bendit, Joschka Fischer, Trittin, Eva Joly.

Couple of information about the ecological movement in Europe:
1. In 2010 regional elections in France they scored above 16% (almost becoming the second party by vote).
2. They already had 1 Commissioner (German Michele Schreyer - Prodi Commission - 1999-2004)
3. If I remember well, in 2010 elections in UK they managed to secured the first MP seat.
4. In Poland - Zieloni 2004 - problems with emerging on the media scene.